Rapid Extreme Weather Event Attribution system: latest results


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Extreme heat: latest attribution analysis and results

During the warm season, we share detailed analysis about the most intense heat waves in Canada. The results show how human-caused climate change influenced the likelihood of heat waves.

Each analysis shows:

  • the dates of each analysis period
  • the peak daily high temperature averaged over the region during the heat wave
  • degrees above normal daily high temperature
  • a statement of current likelihood: the event was xxx likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • a statement of future likelihood: in a future climate with a global warming of 2.0 °C the event would be xxx likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.
May 2026

Saskatchewan

  • Dates: May 26 - 30, 2026
  • Peak daily high temperature: 28.8 °C
  • Degrees above normal daily high temperature: 11.8 °C
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was much more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.0 °C the event would be much more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

August 2025

Alberta

  • Dates: August 25 – 31, 2025
  • Peak daily high temperature: 28.8 °C
  • Degrees above normal daily high temperature: 9.3 °C
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was much more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.0 °C the event would be much more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Fort Smith, Northwest Territories

  • Dates: August 24 – 31, 2025
  • Peak daily high temperature: 25.5 °C
  • Degrees above normal daily high temperature: 11.6 °C
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was much more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.0 °C the event would be much more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Northern British Columbia

  • Dates: August 23 – September 9, 2025
  • Peak daily high temperature: 23.5 °C
  • Degrees above normal daily high temperature: 9.7 °C
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was much more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.0 °C the event would be much more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Southern British Columbia

  • Dates: August 23 – September 7, 2025
  • Peak daily high temperature: 27.1 °C
  • Degrees above normal daily high temperature: 10.3 °C
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was much more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.0 °C the event would be much more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Atlantic Canada

  • Dates: August 7 – 14, 2025
  • Peak daily high temperature: 28.4 °C
  • Degrees above normal daily high temperature: 9.6 °C
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was far more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.0 °C the event would be far more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Southern Quebec

  • Dates: August 7 – 13, 2025
  • Peak daily high temperature: 29.3 °C
  • Degrees above normal daily high temperature: 9.1 °C
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was much more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.0 °C the event would be far more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Northern Quebec

  • Dates: August 6 – 9, 2025
  • Peak daily high temperature: 23.8 °C
  • Degrees above normal daily high temperature: 7 °C
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was much more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.0 °C the event would be much more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

July 2025

Fort Smith, Northwest Territories

  • Dates: July 30 – August 1, 2025
  • Peak daily high temperature: 25.2 °C
  • Degrees above normal daily high temperature: 6 °C
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was much more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.0 °C the event would be much more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Atlantic Canada

  • Dates: July 10 – 15, 2025
  • Peak daily high temperature: 25.6 °C
  • Degrees above normal daily high temperature: 7.1 °C
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was much more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.0 °C the event would be much more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Northern Quebec

  • Dates: July 10 – 13, 2025
  • Peak daily high temperature: 24.2 °C
  • Degrees above normal daily high temperature: 7.5 °C
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was much more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.0 °C the event would be much more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

June 2025

Yukon

  • Dates: June 20 – 23, 2025
  • Peak daily high temperature: 22 °C
  • Degrees above normal daily high temperature: 6 °C
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was much more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.0 °C the event would be much more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

May 2025

Alberta

  • Dates: May 28 – 31, 2025
  • Peak daily high temperature: 28.8 °C
  • Degrees above normal daily high temperature: 11.3 °C
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was much more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.0 °C the event would be much more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

For more information, please visit Extreme weather event attribution - Canada.ca.


Extreme cold: latest attribution analysis and results

During the cold season, we share detailed analysis about the coldest extreme temperatures in Canada. The results show how much human-caused climate change influenced the coldest extreme temperatures.

Each analysis shows:

  • the dates of each analysis period
  • the coldest daily temperature averaged over the region during the extreme cold event
  • degrees below normal daily low temperature
  • a statement of current likelihood: the event was xxx likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • a statement of future likelihood: in a future climate with a global warming of 2.0 °C the event would be xxx likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.
March 2026

Kitikmeot, Nunavut

  • Dates: March 2 – 4, 2026
  • Coldest daily temperature: -40.9 °C
  • Difference from the normal daily low temperature: -9.3 °C
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was much less likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.0 °C the event would be far less likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Inuvik, Northwest Territories

  • Dates: March 2 – 3, 2026
  • Coldest daily temperature: -39.9 °C
  • Difference from the normal daily low temperature: -11.7 °C
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was much less likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.0 °C the event would be far less likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

February 2026

Kitikmeot, Nunavut

  • Dates: February 24 – 26, 2026
  • Coldest daily temperature: -43.1 °C
  • Difference from the normal daily low temperature: -10.8 °C
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was far less likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.0 °C the event would be far less likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Southern Qikiqtaaluk, Nunavut

  • Dates: February 24 – 25, 2026
  • Coldest daily temperature: -40.8 °C
  • Difference from the normal daily low temperature: -7.8 °C
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was much less likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.0 °C the event would be far less likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Fort Smith, Northwest Territories

  • Dates: February 17 – 18, 2026
  • Coldest daily temperature: -38.3 °C
  • Difference from the normal daily low temperature: -12.9 °C
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was much less likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.0 °C the event would be much less likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Northern Qikiqtaaluk, Nunavut

  • Dates: February 16 – 22, 2026
  • Coldest daily temperature: -41.9 °C
  • Difference from the normal daily low temperature: -7.4 °C
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was much less likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.0 °C the event would be far less likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Kitikmeot, Nunavut

  • Dates: February 8 – 17, 2026
  • Coldest daily temperature: -43.0 °C
  • Difference from the normal daily low temperature: -9.6 °C
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was much less likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.0 °C the event would be far less likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Inuvik, Northwest Territories

  • Dates: February 7 – 14, 2026
  • Coldest daily temperature: -45.3 °C
  • Difference from the normal daily low temperature: -15.7 °C
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was far less likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.0 °C the event would be far less likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

January 2026

Saskatchewan

  • Dates: January 22 – 25, 2026
  • Coldest daily temperature: -35.2 °C
  • Difference from the normal daily low temperature: -15.7 °C
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was much less likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.0 °C the event would be much less likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Inuvik, Northwest Territories

  • Dates: January 5 – 7, 2026
  • Coldest daily temperature: -39.1 °C
  • Difference from the normal daily low temperature: -9.5 °C
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was much less likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.0 °C the event would be much less likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Yukon

  • Dates: January 3 – 5, 2026
  • Coldest daily temperature: -40.9 °C
  • Difference from the normal daily low temperature: -15.9 °C
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was much less likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.0 °C the event would be much less likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

December 2025

Northern British Columbia

  • Dates: December 20 – 27, 2025
  • Coldest daily temperature: -31.7 °C
  • Difference from the normal daily low temperature: -15.9 °C
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was less likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.0 °C the event would be much less likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Northern British Columbia

  • Dates: December 9 – 13, 2025
  • Coldest daily temperature: -32.0 °C
  • Difference from the normal daily low temperature: -17.2 °C
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was less likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.0 °C the event would be much less likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Yukon

  • Dates: December 8 – 27, 2025
  • Coldest daily temperature: -41.2 °C
  • Difference from the normal daily low temperature: -17.3 °C
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was much less likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.0 °C the event would be much less likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

For more information, please visit Extreme weather event attribution - Canada.ca.


Extreme precipitation: latest attribution analysis and results

Throughout the year, we share detailed analysis about the most intense precipitation events in Canada. The results show how human-caused climate change influenced the likelihood of these events.

Each analysis shows:

  • the date of each event
  • the total accumulated precipitation averaged over the region during the event
  • the percentage of normal monthly precipitation that accumulated during the event
  • a statement of current likelihood: the event was xxx likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • a statement of future likelihood: in a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be xxx likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.
April 2026

Southern Quebec

Southern Central Québec

  • Date: April 3, 2026
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 31.2 mm
  • Portion of April's average total precipitation: 35 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Abitibi-Témiscamingue and Outaouais

  • Date: April 3, 2026
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 29.5 mm
  • Portion of April's average total precipitation: 38 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

March 2026

Northern British Columbia

Kitimat-Stikine and Skeena-Queen Charlotte

  • Date: March 16, 2026
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 49.9 mm
  • Portion of March's average total precipitation: 31 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be much more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Southern British Columbia

Cariboo and Central Coast

  • Date: March 16, 2026
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 29.5 mm
  • Portion of March's average total precipitation: 35 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Southern Quebec

Abitibi-Témiscamingue and Outaouais

  • Date: March 16, 2026
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 29.1 mm
  • Portion of March's average total precipitation: 47 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

February 2026

Northern British Columbia

Kitimat-Stikine and Skeena-Queen Charlotte

  • Date: February 4, 2026
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 50.3 mm
  • Portion of February's average total precipitation: 34 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be much more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

January 2026

Southern British Columbia

Southwestern British Columbia

  • Date: January 12, 2026
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 77.7 mm
  • Portion of January's average total precipitation: 23 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

December 2025

Southern British Columbia

Southwestern British Columbia

  • Date: December 15, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 71.7 mm
  • Portion of December's average total precipitation: 22 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

November 2025

Atlantic Canada

Western Labrador-Happy Valley-Goose Bay

  • Date: November 11, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 25 mm
  • Portion of November's average total precipitation: 29 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Eastern Labrador-Happy Valley-Goose Bay

  • Date: November 1, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 39.9 mm
  • Portion of November's average total precipitation: 43 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was much more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be much more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

October 2025

Southern Quebec

Southern Central Québec

  • Date: October 31, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 39.1 mm
  • Portion of October's average total precipitation: 35 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be much more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Saguenay Lac-Saint-Jean

  • Date: October 31, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 28.1 mm
  • Portion of October's average total precipitation: 27 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Northern British Columbia

Kitimat-Stikine and Skeena-Queen Charlotte

  • Date: October 23, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 48.9 mm
  • Portion of October's average total precipitation: 19 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Manitoba

Eastern Churchill/Northern Manitoba

  • Date: October 13, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 26.4 mm
  • Portion of October's average total precipitation: 42 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Thompson/North Central

  • Date: October 13, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 34.2 mm
  • Portion of October's average total precipitation: 62 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Southern Qikiqtaaluk, Nunavut

West Central Baffin Island

  • Date: October 5, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 15.5 mm
  • Portion of October's average total precipitation: 31 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

September 2025

Northern Qikiqtaaluk, Nunavut

Southern Ellesmere Island

  • Date: September 23, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 10 mm
  • Portion of September's average total precipitation: 34 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Parry Islands

  • Date: September 23, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 15.1 mm
  • Portion of September's average total precipitation: 37 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be much more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Northern Quebec

Eastern Rivière-Koksoak

  • Date: September 17, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 24.9 mm
  • Portion of September's average total precipitation: 19 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Southwestern Rivière-Koksoak

  • Date: September 17, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 25.6 mm
  • Portion of September's average total precipitation: 22 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be much more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Inuvik, Northwest Territories

Northern Inuvik

  • Date: September 6, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 20.5 mm
  • Portion of September's average total precipitation: 58 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be much more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

August 2025

Kitikmeot, Nunavut

Northeastern Kitikmeot

  • Date: August 31, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 13.9 mm
  • Portion of August's average total precipitation: 30 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be much more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Central Southeastern Kitikmeot

  • Date: August 8, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 16.6 mm
  • Portion of August's average total precipitation: 36 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be much more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Inuvik, Northwest Territories

Victoria Island Inuvik

  • Date: August 30, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 21 mm
  • Portion of August's average total precipitation: 46 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be much more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Northern Inuvik

  • Date: August 24, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 10 mm
  • Portion of August's average total precipitation: 24 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be much more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Northern Qikiqtaaluk, Nunavut

Southern Ellesmere Island

  • Date: August 25, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 12.5 mm
  • Portion of August's average total precipitation: 24 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be much more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Western Qikiqtaaluk

  • Date: August 25, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 14.3 mm
  • Portion of August's average total precipitation: 29 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be much more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Parry Islands

  • Date: August 25, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 9.6 mm
  • Portion of August's average total precipitation: 19 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Saskatchewan

Central La Ronge

  • Date: August 21, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 30.2 mm
  • Portion of August's average total precipitation: 42 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Southern La Ronge

  • Date: August 14, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 24.9 mm
  • Portion of August's average total precipitation: 39 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Northern British Columbia

Stikine

  • Date: August 17, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 16.5 mm
  • Portion of August's average total precipitation: 22 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be much more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Manitoba

Western Churchill/Northern Manitoba

  • Date: August 14, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 24.1 mm
  • Portion of August's average total precipitation: 28 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Northern Quebec

Northwestern Rivière-Koksoak

  • Date: August 13, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 23 mm
  • Portion of August's average total precipitation: 27 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be much more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate..

Southern Qikiqtaaluk, Nunavut

Western Baffin Island

  • Date: August 6, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 12.9 mm
  • Portion of August's average total precipitation: 25 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Fort Smith, Northwest Territories

Western Fort Smith

  • Date: August 5, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 20.6 mm
  • Portion of August's average total precipitation: 26 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

July 2025

Yukon

Southeastern Yukon

  • Date: July 24, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 17.6 mm
  • Portion of July's average total precipitation: 23 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be much more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Kitikmeot, Nunavut

Victoria Island Kitikmeot

  • Date: July 19, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 10.9 mm
  • Portion of July's average total precipitation: 30 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Northern Qikiqtaaluk, Nunavut

Northern Ellesmere Island

  • Date: July 19, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 6.5 mm
  • Portion of July's average total precipitation: 20 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be much more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Atlantic Canada

Eastern Labrador-Happy Valley-Goose Bay

  • Date: July 18, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 36 mm
  • Portion of July's average total precipitation: 33 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was much more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be much more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Alberta

Southwestern Alberta

  • Date: July 14, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 22.5 mm
  • Portion of July's average total precipitation: 32 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Southern Qikiqtaaluk, Nunavut

West Central Baffin Island

  • Date: July 11, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 16.7 mm
  • Portion of July's average total precipitation: 27 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Western Baffin Island

  • Date: July 11, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 20.4 mm
  • Portion of July's average total precipitation: 41 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was much more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be much more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Kivalliq, Nunavut

Northwestern Kivalliq

  • Date: July 10, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 18.3 mm
  • Portion of July's average total precipitation: 41 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

June 2025

Alberta

Southeastern Alberta

  • Date: June 21, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 28.1 mm
  • Portion of June's average total precipitation: 38 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Southwestern Alberta

  • Date: June 21, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 39.2 mm
  • Portion of June's average total precipitation: 41 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be much more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Atlantic Canada

Eastern Labrador-Happy Valley-Goose Bay

  • Date: June 21, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 31 mm
  • Portion of June's average total precipitation: 34 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be much more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Saskatchewan

Southwestern Saskatchewan

  • Date: June 21, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 21.5 mm
  • Portion of June's average total precipitation: 29 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Northern La Ronge

  • Date: June 1, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 19.7 mm
  • Portion of June's average total precipitation: 40 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Southern Quebec

La Haute-Côte-Nord, Manicouagan, and Sept-Rivières

  • Date: June 20, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 29.7 mm
  • Portion of June's average total precipitation: 32 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Eastern Ontario

Central Southern Ontario

  • Date: June 19, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 31.5 mm
  • Portion of June's average total precipitation: 42 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Fort Smith, Northwest Territories

Eastern Fort Smith

  • Date: June 2, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 27.6 mm
  • Portion of June's average total precipitation: 66 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be much more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

May 2025

Inuvik, Northwest Territories

Victoria Island Inuvik

  • Date: May 31, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 12.4 mm
  • Portion of May's average total precipitation: 54 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Northern Inuvik

  • Date: May 31, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 11.1 mm
  • Portion of May's average total precipitation: 49 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be much more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Northern Qikiqtaaluk, Nunavut

Western Qikiqtaaluk

  • Date: May 31, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 15.3 mm
  • Portion of May's average total precipitation: 72 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be much more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

Atlantic Canada

Eastern Labrador-Happy Valley-Goose Bay

  • Date: May 11, 2025
  • Total accumulated precipitation: 30.4 mm
  • Portion of May's average total precipitation: 39 %
  • Statement of current likelihood: The event was more likely because of human influence on the climate, in today's climate compared to the pre-industrial climate
  • Statement of future likelihood: In a future climate with a global warming of 2.5 °C the event would be much more likely compared to the pre-industrial climate.

For more information, please visit Extreme weather event attribution - Canada.ca.